Yankees at Astros
NYY12–
HOU4Last play · Christian Vázquez pops out softly to first baseman Ben Rice in foul territory.
Win probability
Astros0%
NYY 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 5 – 2 HOU
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Cody Bellinger scores. Ben Rice scores. (inning 1) — -16% Yankees
7Braden Shewmake homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.12–4
7Yainer Diaz homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.12–3
7José Caballero homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.12–2
7Astros challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Ryan McMahon grounds into a double play, pitcher Colton Gordon to shortstop Carlos Correa to first baseman Christian Walker. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. J.C. Escarra out at 2nd. Ryan McMahon out at 1st.11–2
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Randal Grichuk scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 2nd.10–2
7Ben Rice homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.9–2
6Trent Grisham out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brice Matthews. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. J.C. Escarra to 3rd. José Caballero to 2nd.8–2
6José Caballero singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Randal Grichuk scores. Jazz Chisholm Jr. to 3rd. J.C. Escarra to 2nd.7–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.