Yankees at Astros
Last play · Christian Vázquez grounds out, shortstop José Caballero to first baseman Ben Rice.
Win probability
Astros0%
NYY 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 2 – 1 HOU
Yankees led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-156 / +129
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Austin Wells homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — -26% Yankees
9Christian Walker homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.8–3
9Ryan McMahon singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Amed Rosario scores. Austin Wells to 2nd.8–2
9Austin Wells singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Cody Bellinger scores. Amed Rosario to 3rd.7–2
8Ben Rice out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brice Matthews. Ryan McMahon scores. José Caballero to 3rd.6–2
7Jazz Chisholm Jr. walks. Ben Rice scores. Aaron Judge to 3rd. Cody Bellinger to 2nd.5–2
7Cody Bellinger walks. Trent Grisham scores. Ben Rice to 3rd. Aaron Judge to 2nd.4–2
7Austin Wells homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
6Carlos Correa homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
