Yankees at Astros
NYY4–
HOU7Last play · José Caballero lines out to third baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Astros100%
NYY 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 0 – 7 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Isaac Paredes scores. (inning 1) — +17% Astros
9Ryan McMahon singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. J.C. Escarra scores.4–7
9J.C. Escarra doubles (2) on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Paul Goldschmidt scores.3–7
9Paul Goldschmidt doubles (4) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brice Matthews. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores.2–7
6Aaron Judge homers (10) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
5Christian Walker doubles (8) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores.0–7
5Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Carlos Correa scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd.0–5
3Isaac Paredes homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores.0–4
1Christian Walker homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Isaac Paredes scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.