Dodgers at Astros
LAD8–
HOU3Last play · Zach Cole strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
LAD 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 8 – 3 HOU
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-227 / +184
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Tucker homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 3) — -16% Dodgers
5Zach Cole homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.8–3
5Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brice Matthews. Alex Freeland scores. Shohei Ohtani to 3rd.8–2
3Freddie Freeman singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Brice Matthews, deflected by right fielder Cam Smith. Hyeseong Kim scores. Shohei Ohtani scores. Freddie Freeman to 2nd. Fielding error by right fielder Cam Smith.7–2
3Shohei Ohtani grounds into a force out, third baseman Isaac Paredes to shortstop Carlos Correa. Andy Pages scores. Hyeseong Kim to 3rd. Alex Freeland out at 2nd. Shohei Ohtani to 1st.5–2
3Kyle Tucker homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.4–2
2Will Smith doubles (2) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Zach Cole. Shohei Ohtani scores.3–2
2Alex Freeland homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.2–2
1Brice Matthews flies out to center fielder Andy Pages.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.