Dodgers at Astros
Last play · Miguel Rojas pops out to first baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Astros100%
LAD 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 0 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-219 / +179
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — +15% Astros
8Kyle Tucker singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Alex Call scores.1–2
3Braden Shewmake homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.0–2
2Christian Walker homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
