Dodgers at Astros
Last play · Christian Walker strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
LAD 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 10 – 1 HOU
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-219 / +179
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Freddie Freeman walks. (inning 3) — -26% Dodgers
9Andy Pages homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.12–2
7Zach Cole singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Christian Walker scores.11–2
7Alex Freeland singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Hyeseong Kim scores.11–1
5Shohei Ohtani singles on a line drive to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Dalton Rushing scores. Alex Freeland to 3rd.10–1
5Andy Pages homers (7) on a line drive to left field. Max Muncy scores.9–1
4Freddie Freeman doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Shohei Ohtani scores.7–1
3Andy Pages homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Freddie Freeman scores. Kyle Tucker scores.6–1
3Freddie Freeman walks.3–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
