Rangers at Astros
Last play · Braden Shewmake strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
TEX 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 0 HOU
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 49.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Burger homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Alejandro Osuna scores. (inning 5) — -28% Rangers
9Kyle Higashioka homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.8–0
7Brandon Nimmo doubles (8) on a fly ball to left fielder Zach Dezenzo. Kyle Higashioka scores.7–0
7Kyle Higashioka singles on a line drive to center fielder Zach Cole. Alejandro Osuna scores. Jake Burger scores.6–0
7Jake Burger doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Zach Dezenzo, deflected by third baseman Braden Shewmake. Joc Pederson scores. Ezequiel Duran scores. Alejandro Osuna to 3rd.4–0
5Jake Burger homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Alejandro Osuna scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
