Brewers at Astros
Last play · Gary Sánchez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
MIL 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 2 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 47.7% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-117 / -103
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremy Peña homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 2) — +20% Astros
8Christian Walker homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez scores.2–9
5Isaac Paredes doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Jackson Chourio. Christian Walker scores. Taylor Trammell scores.2–6
5Taylor Trammell singles on a line drive to second baseman Brice Turang, deflected by first baseman Andrew Vaughn. Jeremy Peña scores. Christian Walker to 2nd.2–4
5Jackson Chourio singles on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Garrett Mitchell scores. Christian Yelich to 2nd.2–3
2Jeremy Peña homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Meyers scores.1–3
2Brewers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Jake Meyers singles on a line drive to right fielder Jake Bauers. Cam Smith scores.1–1
1William Contreras doubles (10) on a fly ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Brice Turang scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
