Pirates at Astros
PIT9–
HOU11Last play · Endy Rodríguez grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
PIT 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 3 HOU
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Davis hits a grand slam (5) to left field. Marcell Ozuna scores. Jhostynxon Garcia scores. Jared Triolo scores. (inning 4) — -50% Pirates
8Cam Smith triples (1) on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Jake Mangum. Christian Walker scores. Isaac Paredes scores.9–11
8Isaac Paredes walks. Zach Cole scores. Christian Walker to 2nd. Wild pitch by pitcher Gregory Soto.9–9
8Christian Walker singles on a soft ground ball to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Jeremy Peña scores. Zach Cole to 3rd. Throwing error by second baseman Brandon Lowe.9–8
8Yordan Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Christian Vázquez scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd.9–7
8Christian Vázquez doubles (5) on a line drive to center fielder Jhostynxon Garcia. Nick Allen scores.9–6
8Nick Gonzales doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Brandon Lowe scores.9–5
7Isaac Paredes homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores.8–5
7Jhostynxon Garcia doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Oneil Cruz scores.8–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.