Athletics at Astros
Last play · Colby Thomas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
ATH 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 0 – 5 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez scores. (inning 1) — +24% Astros
6Brent Rooker homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
3Isaac Paredes out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Christian Walker scores.0–5
3Christian Walker triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Yordan Alvarez scores.0–4
1Isaac Paredes homers (9) on a fly ball to left center field. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
