Athletics at Astros
Last play · Jonah Heim strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
ATH 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 2 – 13 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · LaMonte Wade Jr. homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — +15% Astros
5Jeremy Peña doubles (7) on a ground ball to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. Jake Meyers scores. Christian Vázquez scores.2–13
5Christian Vázquez doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Soderstrom. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores. Jake Meyers to 3rd.2–11
5Jake Meyers singles on a ground ball to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Jose Altuve scores. LaMonte Wade Jr. to 3rd.2–10
5LaMonte Wade Jr. doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Carlos Cortes. Christian Walker scores. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.2–9
3Jose Altuve homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.2–7
3Zack Gelof walks. Brent Rooker scores. Tyler Soderstrom to 3rd. Henry Bolte to 2nd.2–6
3Tyler Soderstrom singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Meyers. Nick Kurtz scores. Brent Rooker to 3rd.1–6
2Yordan Alvarez hits a grand slam (22) to right field. Taylor Trammell scores. Christian Vázquez scores. Jeremy Peña scores.0–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
