Tigers at Astros
Last play · Jake Rogers strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
DET 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 1 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Raynel Delgado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Matt Vierling. Yainer Diaz scores. Cam Smith scores. Joey Loperfido to 3rd. (inning 8) — +61% Astros
8Astros challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Jeremy Peña grounds into a force out, shortstop Zach McKinstry to second baseman Hao-Yu Lee. Joey Loperfido scores. Raynel Delgado out at 2nd. Jeremy Peña to 1st.2–4
8Raynel Delgado singles on a ground ball to center fielder Matt Vierling. Yainer Diaz scores. Cam Smith scores. Joey Loperfido to 3rd.2–3
8Dillon Dingler out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Brice Matthews. Hao-Yu Lee scores.2–1
5Isaac Paredes walks.1–1
2Hao-Yu Lee singles on a ground ball to left fielder Yordan Alvarez, deflected by shortstop Jeremy Peña. Spencer Torkelson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
