Guardians at Astros
Last play · Jose Altuve called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros0%
CLE 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 6 – 1 HOU
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Manzardo hits a home run (9). Travis Bazzana scores. (inning 3) — -26% Guardians
7Kyle Manzardo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Petey Halpin scores. Travis Bazzana to 2nd.8–1
7Travis Bazzana singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Patrick Bailey scores. Petey Halpin to 2nd.7–1
5Travis Bazzana homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Steven Kwan scores. Patrick Bailey scores.6–1
3Kyle Manzardo hits a home run (9). Travis Bazzana scores.3–1
2Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to right fielder Kahlil Watson. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.1–1
1Travis Bazzana homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
