Guardians at Astros
CLE3–
HOU9Last play · Petey Halpin flies out to shortstop Jeremy Peña.
Win probability
Astros100%
CLE 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 2 HOU
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -157
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jose Altuve homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores. (inning 6) — +46% Astros
8Jeremy Peña singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder David Fry. Jake Meyers scores.3–9
8Jake Meyers hits a ground-rule double (5) on a line drive to left-center field. Cam Smith scores.3–8
7Jose Altuve doubles (11) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Steven Kwan. Yordan Alvarez scores.3–7
7Jeremy Peña homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.3–6
6Jose Altuve homers (8) on a fly ball to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores.3–5
3Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Jeremy Peña homers (5) on a line drive to left field.3–2
3Rhys Hoskins homers (7) on a fly ball to left field. Brayan Rocchio scores.3–1
3Brayan Rocchio doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Travis Bazzana scores.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.