Guardians at Astros
Last play · David Fry strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
CLE 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 2 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -132
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez flies out to left fielder David Fry. (inning 8) — +12% Astros
5Travis Bazzana grounds out, second baseman Raynel Delgado to first baseman Christian Walker. Petey Halpin scores.1–2
4Isaac Paredes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Petey Halpin, deflected by shortstop Brayan Rocchio. Yordan Alvarez scores. Christian Walker to 3rd.0–2
1Yordan Alvarez homers (25) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
