Rays at Astros
Last play · Cam Smith lines out to shortstop Taylor Walls.
Win probability
Astros0%
TB 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 0 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (25) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 7) — -19% Rays
8Nick Fortes doubles (11) on a fly ball to center fielder Jake Meyers. Taylor Walls scores.3–1
7Junior Caminero homers (25) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
6Yordan Alvarez homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
6Nick Fortes homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
