Rays at Astros
Last play · Ben Williamson strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
TB 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 1 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 6) — +21% Astros
6Isaac Paredes homers (12) on a fly ball to left center field.0–2
4Christian Walker homers (20) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
