Rays at Astros
TB8–
HOU10Last play · Yordan Alvarez homers (29) on a fly ball to center field. Jose Altuve scores.
Win probability
Astros100%
TB 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 7 – 5 HOU
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Richie Palacios homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Victor Mesa Jr. scores. (inning 2) — -25% Rays
9Yordan Alvarez homers (29) on a fly ball to center field. Jose Altuve scores.8–10
7Zach Dezenzo singles on a line drive to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Jose Altuve scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd.8–8
7Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Nick Allen scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.8–7
7Yordan Alvarez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jonny DeLuca. Taylor Trammell scores. Nick Allen to 3rd.8–6
7Jonny DeLuca homers (5) on a line drive to left field.8–5
5Yordan Alvarez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Victor Mesa Jr. Nick Allen scores. Jose Altuve to 3rd.7–5
4Yainer Diaz homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Christian Walker scores.7–4
4Junior Caminero reaches on a fielder's choice. Taylor Walls scores. Hunter Feduccia to 3rd. Throwing error by shortstop Nick Allen.7–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.