Orioles at Astros
Last play · Zach Dezenzo grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Astros0%
BAL 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 4 – 1 HOU
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+106 / -127
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso scores. Sam Huff to 2nd. (inning 5) — -21% Orioles
8Jose Altuve homers (12) on a fly ball to left field.5–2
6Coby Mayo homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.5–1
5Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Taylor Ward scores. Pete Alonso scores. Sam Huff to 2nd.4–1
3Yordan Alvarez doubles (20) on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Jose Altuve scores.2–1
3Sam Huff strikes out swinging.2–0
3Gunnar Henderson singles on a line drive to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Jackson Holliday scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
