Rangers at Astros
TEX2–
HOU11Last play · Nicky Lopez lines out to third baseman Isaac Paredes.
Win probability
Astros100%
TEX 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Yainer Diaz scores. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores. Jeremy Peña to 3rd. (inning 2) — +16% Astros
8Lucas Spence singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Nick Allen scores. Yainer Diaz to 2nd.2–11
7Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.2–10
7Jeremy Peña doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Lucas Spence scores. Cam Smith scores.2–9
7Yainer Diaz homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.2–7
6Evan Carter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Corey Seager scores. Ezequiel Duran to 2nd.2–6
6Joc Pederson homers (20) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
5Christian Walker homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field.0–6
5Isaac Paredes homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.