Rangers at Astros
Last play · Austin Wynns grounds out, shortstop Nick Allen to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
TEX 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Nimmo homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 7) — -26% Rangers
7Yordan Alvarez doubles (24) on a line drive to right fielder Brandon Nimmo. Cam Smith scores. Nick Allen scores. LaMonte Wade Jr. to 3rd.3–7
7LaMonte Wade Jr. singles on a ground ball to first baseman Jake Burger. Jose Altuve scores. Cam Smith to 3rd. Nick Allen to 2nd.3–5
7Cam Smith singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Taylor Trammell scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.3–4
7Brandon Nimmo homers (11) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
5Ezequiel Duran singles on a ground ball to left fielder Yordan Alvarez. Jake Burger scores.2–3
5Evan Carter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Brandon Nimmo scores. Evan Carter out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Cam Smith to catcher Christian Vázquez to shortstop Nick Allen. Jake Burger to 3rd.1–3
4Jeremy Peña homers (13) on a line drive to left field. Cam Smith scores.0–3
3Jose Altuve singles on a ground ball to third baseman Ezequiel Duran, deflected by pitcher Kumar Rocker. Yordan Alvarez scores. Taylor Trammell to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
