Rangers at Astros
Last play · Wyatt Langford strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
TEX 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 3 – 5 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Trammell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Yordan Alvarez scores. Christian Walker scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd. (inning 3) — +23% Astros
6Elias Díaz homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.4–5
4Yainer Diaz grounds out, shortstop Corey Seager to first baseman Joc Pederson.3–5
4Christian Walker singles on a ground ball to first baseman Joc Pederson. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.3–4
4Elias Díaz out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Ronel Blanco to second baseman Jose Altuve. Ezequiel Duran scores. Alejandro Osuna to 2nd.3–3
4Alejandro Osuna singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Evan Carter scores. Ezequiel Duran to 3rd.2–3
3Taylor Trammell singles on a ground ball to left fielder Wyatt Langford. Yordan Alvarez scores. Christian Walker scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.1–3
3Wyatt Langford homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
2LaMonte Wade Jr. singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Alejandro Osuna. Jose Altuve scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
