Blue Jays at Astros
Last play · Josh Smith grounds into a double play, second baseman Nick Allen to shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Alejandro Kirk out at 2nd. Josh Smith out at 1st.
Win probability
Astros100%
TOR 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 2 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -208
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Trammell homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Christian Walker scores. Jose Altuve scores. (inning 5) — +20% Astros
7Jose Altuve singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Christian Walker scores.2–7
5Taylor Trammell homers (6) on a line drive to right field. Christian Walker scores. Jose Altuve scores.2–6
5Jose Altuve singles on a line drive to shortstop Andrés Giménez, deflected by third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Yordan Alvarez scores. Christian Walker to 2nd.2–3
5Nathan Lukes grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.2–2
5Myles Straw triples (1) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Andrés Giménez scores.1–2
4Cam Smith singles on a line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Taylor Trammell scores. Yainer Diaz to 3rd. Cam Smith to 2nd. Cam Smith advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Jesús Sánchez.0–2
4Yainer Diaz singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Jose Altuve scores. Taylor Trammell to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
