Blue Jays at Astros
Last play · Christian Walker flies out to right fielder Nathan Lukes.
Win probability
Astros0%
TOR 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 0 HOU
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Alejandro Kirk homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 2) — -20% Blue Jays
6Jeremy Peña singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Yainer Diaz scores. Cam Smith to 3rd. Jeremy Peña to 2nd.3–1
4Ernie Clement out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Trammell. George Springer scores.3–0
4Jesús Sánchez singles on a fly ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Kazuma Okamoto scores. George Springer to 3rd. Jesús Sánchez to 2nd. Jesús Sánchez advances to 2nd, on a throwing error by left fielder Taylor Trammell.2–0
2Alejandro Kirk homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
