Mariners at Astros
SEA7–
HOU10Last play · Christian Walker homers (23) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Altuve scores. Daulton Varsho scores.
Win probability
Astros100%
SEA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 5 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Daulton Varsho singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Nick Allen scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd. (inning 10) — +42% Astros
10Christian Walker homers (23) on a fly ball to left field. Jose Altuve scores. Daulton Varsho scores.7–10
10Daulton Varsho singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Nick Allen scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.7–7
10Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Robles. Jeremy Peña scores.7–6
10Brock Rodden out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Victor Robles scores.7–5
10Victor Robles triples (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Brendan Donovan scores.6–5
8Brock Rodden hits a ground-rule double (1) on a fly ball down the right-field line. Weston Wilson scores. Victor Robles to 3rd.5–5
8Brendan Donovan grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Julio Rodríguez scores.4–5
6Victor Robles singles on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Josh Naylor scores.3–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.