Blue Jays at Astros
Last play · Daulton Varsho flies out to center fielder Myles Straw.
Win probability
Astros0%
TOR 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 0 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+195 / -208
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ernie Clement homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Urías scores. (inning 10) — -46% Blue Jays
10Astros challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Yordan Alvarez singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Nathan Lukes to shortstop Andrés Giménez.5–4
10Ernie Clement homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Luis Urías scores.5–3
6Jesús Sánchez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Kazuma Okamoto scores.3–3
6Kazuma Okamoto singles on a line drive to center fielder Daulton Varsho. Myles Straw scores.1–3
3LaMonte Wade Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Myles Straw. Christian Walker scores.0–3
3Christian Walker doubles (24) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Daulton Varsho scores.0–2
3Jose Altuve homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
