Mariners at Astros
Last play · Taylor Trammell strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
SEA 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 2 – 1 HOU
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+111 / -119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Allen homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 6) — +21% Astros
6Nick Allen homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
6Cal Raleigh homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
4Jeremy Peña homers (14) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
3Dominic Canzone singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Brock Rodden scores.2–0
1Randy Arozarena homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
