Angels at Astros
Last play · Jose Siri flies out sharply to center fielder Daulton Varsho.
Win probability
Astros100%
LAA 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 2 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 9 ↓
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+169 / -182
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Denzer Guzman doubles (6) to left field, on fan interference. Vaughn Grissom scores. Josh Lowe scores. (inning 4) — -26% Angels
4Cam Smith out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Mike Trout. Isaac Paredes scores.2–3
4Jose Altuve doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Wade Meckler. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes to 3rd.2–2
4Denzer Guzman doubles (6) to left field, on fan interference. Vaughn Grissom scores. Josh Lowe scores.2–1
3Christian Vázquez homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
