Athletics at Astros
Last play · Donovan Walton grounds out, second baseman Jose Altuve to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
ATH 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 0 – 3 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+217 / -235
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Isaac Paredes scores. (inning 4) — +13% Astros
7Yordan Alvarez doubles (28) on a fly ball to shortstop Donovan Walton. Raynel Delgado scores.0–4
5Isaac Paredes doubles (23) on a ground ball to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Yordan Alvarez scores.0–3
5Yordan Alvarez doubles (27) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. Nick Allen scores.0–2
4Christian Walker out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Isaac Paredes scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
