Athletics at Astros
Last play · Taylor Trammell flies out to left fielder Zack Gelof.
Win probability
Astros0%
ATH 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 1 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+217 / -235
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lawrence Butler singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith, deflected by first baseman Christian Walker. Zack Gelof scores. (inning 8) — -34% Athletics
8Jonah Heim grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Lawrence Butler scores. Tommy White to 3rd.4–3
8Lawrence Butler singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith, deflected by first baseman Christian Walker. Zack Gelof scores.3–3
7Jeremy Peña singles on a line drive to center fielder Henry Bolte. LaMonte Wade Jr. scores. Jeremy Peña to 2nd.1–3
7Daulton Varsho homers (9) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
4Yainer Diaz doubles (10) on a fly ball to left fielder Carlos Cortes. Christian Walker scores.1–1
3Donovan Walton homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
