Athletics at Astros
Last play · Christian Walker strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros0%
ATH 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 6 – 6 HOU
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9 ↓
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+163 / -176
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tommy White singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Zack Gelof scores. Lawrence Butler scores. (inning 5) — -25% Athletics
7Max Muncy homers (7) on a fly ball to center field.7–6
5Tommy White singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Zack Gelof scores. Lawrence Butler scores.6–6
5Lawrence Butler doubles (14) on a line drive to left fielder LaMonte Wade Jr. Henry Bolte scores. Zack Gelof to 3rd.4–6
5Brian Serven homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Donovan Walton scores. Darell Hernaiz scores.3–6
4Isaac Paredes homers (17) on a fly ball to left field. Jeremy Peña scores.0–6
2Jose Altuve walks. Cam Smith scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.0–4
1Jose Altuve homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Yordan Alvarez scores.0–3
1Isaac Paredes out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Henry Bolte. Jeremy Peña scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
