White Sox at Astros
CWS3–
HOU6Last play · Brenton Doyle strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
CWS 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCWS 2 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-116 / -104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%White Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nelson Velázquez homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Cam Smith scores. (inning 4) — +29% Astros
7Colson Montgomery homers (29) on a line drive to right field.3–6
5Cam Smith doubles (16) on a line drive to left fielder Sam Antonacci. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores. Christian Walker to 3rd.2–6
5Christian Walker walks. Christian Vázquez scores. Yordan Alvarez to 3rd. Isaac Paredes to 2nd.2–4
4Nelson Velázquez homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Cam Smith scores.2–3
4Munetaka Murakami walks. Chase Meidroth scores. Tristan Peters to 3rd. Sam Antonacci to 2nd.2–1
4Chase Meidroth singles on a line drive to left fielder Nelson Velázquez. Colson Montgomery scores.1–1
3Yordan Alvarez grounds into a force out, second baseman Chase Meidroth to shortstop Colson Montgomery. Nick Allen scores. Jeremy Peña out at 2nd. Yordan Alvarez to 1st.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.