Last play · James Outman grounds into a force out, third baseman Nick Loftin to shortstop Tyler Tolbert. Tristan Gray out at 2nd.
Win probability
Royals100%
MIN 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
final
MIN 1 – 5 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference
-113 / -107
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Royals favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Collins doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Jac Caglianone scores. (inning 2) — +10% Royals
9Josh Bell homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Matt Wallner scores. Ryan Jeffers scores.9–13
8Austin Martin hit by pitch. Josh Bell scores. Victor Caratini to 3rd. Tristan Gray to 2nd.6–13
8Victor Caratini singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Ryan Jeffers scores. Josh Bell to 2nd.5–13
7Kyle Isbel homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.4–13
7Luke Keaschall doubles (1) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Royce Lewis scores. Brooks Lee scores. Austin Martin to 3rd.4–12
7Austin Martin challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Austin Martin walks. Josh Bell scores. Royce Lewis to 3rd. Brooks Lee to 2nd.2–12
6Jonathan India hits a grand slam (1) to left field. Maikel Garcia scores. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Salvador Perez scores.1–12
6Twins challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Vinnie Pasquantino reaches on a fielder's choice. Kyle Isbel scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd. Throwing error by first baseman Victor Caratini.1–8
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
MIN9–
KC13