Orioles at Royals
Last play · Wild pitch by pitcher Ryan Helsley. Maikel Garcia scores.
Win probability
Royals100%
BAL 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 3 – 3 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Adley Rutschman homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 8) — -52% Orioles
9Wild pitch by pitcher Ryan Helsley. Maikel Garcia scores.5–6
8Michael Massey homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.5–5
8Adley Rutschman homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field. Gunnar Henderson scores.5–4
7Bobby Witt Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Blaze Alexander. Kyle Isbel scores.3–4
5Vinnie Pasquantino out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Maikel Garcia scores.3–3
5Maikel Garcia singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Kyle Isbel scores.3–2
2Michael Massey out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Blaze Alexander. Carter Jensen scores.3–1
2Umpire reviewed (home run), call on the field was upheld: Coby Mayo homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Weston Wilson scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
