Orioles at Royals
Last play · Kyle Isbel called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals0%
BAL 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 1 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Samuel Basallo singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Coby Mayo scores. (inning 12) — -44% Orioles
12Nick Loftin doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Ward. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Salvador Perez scores. Lane Thomas scores.7–5
12Leody Taveras hits a grand slam (2) to center field. Samuel Basallo scores. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Weston Wilson scores.7–2
12Samuel Basallo singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Coby Mayo scores.3–2
11Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Taylor Ward. Isaac Collins scores.2–2
11Dylan Beavers singles on a line drive to right fielder Lane Thomas. Blaze Alexander scores.2–1
9Samuel Basallo singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Dylan Beavers scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd.1–1
2Jac Caglianone homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
