Orioles at Royals
Last play · Bobby Witt Jr. strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals0%
BAL 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 3 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to left fielder Lane Thomas. Samuel Basallo scores. Leody Taveras scores. (inning 6) — -29% Orioles
6Kyle Isbel homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Massey scores.8–6
6Carter Jensen homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.8–4
6Coby Mayo homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Colton Cowser scores.8–3
6Jeremiah Jackson singles on a line drive to left fielder Lane Thomas. Samuel Basallo scores. Leody Taveras scores.5–3
6Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Pete Alonso scores. Samuel Basallo to 3rd. Leody Taveras to 2nd.3–3
4Lane Thomas singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Leody Taveras. Carter Jensen scores. Jac Caglianone to 2nd.2–3
4Carter Jensen singles on a ground ball to center fielder Leody Taveras. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.2–2
1Vinnie Pasquantino homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
