Angels at Royals
Last play · Travis d'Arnaud lines out sharply to right fielder Jac Caglianone.
Win probability
Royals100%
LAA 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAA 1 – 4 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Angels favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (4) on a line drive to left field. (inning 2) — +15% Royals
8Carter Jensen singles on a fly ball to left fielder Josh Lowe. Isaac Collins scores. Nick Loftin scores. Kyle Isbel to 2nd.1–12
8Nick Loftin singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jo Adell. Salvador Perez scores. Jac Caglianone scores. Isaac Collins to 3rd.1–10
7Nick Loftin reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by shortstop Zach Neto. Isaac Collins scores. Michael Massey scores. Nick Loftin to 2nd. Fielding error by shortstop Zach Neto. Throwing error by shortstop Zach Neto.1–8
7Michael Massey singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryce Teodosio. Jac Caglianone scores. Isaac Collins to 2nd.1–6
6Vinnie Pasquantino walks. Nick Loftin scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd. Carter Jensen to 2nd.1–5
4Jo Adell homers (4) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
3Nick Loftin walks. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd. Isaac Collins to 2nd.0–4
3Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Bryce Teodosio. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
