Guardians at Royals
Last play · Travis Bazzana grounds out softly, pitcher Alex Lange to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
CLE 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 4 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-102 / -118
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · David Fry homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Travis Bazzana scores. (inning 2) — -24% Guardians
7Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Angel Martínez. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.2–6
6Jac Caglianone homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.2–5
4Royals challenged (tag play), call on the field was overturned: Nick Loftin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Steven Kwan. Salvador Perez scores. Carter Jensen scores. Lane Thomas to 3rd.2–4
4Salvador Perez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Daniel Schneemann, deflected by second baseman Travis Bazzana. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.2–2
4Bobby Witt Jr. homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.2–1
2David Fry homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field. Travis Bazzana scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
