Guardians at Royals
Last play · Daniel Schneemann grounds out, second baseman Michael Massey to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
CLE 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 4 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Rhys Hoskins homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. José Ramírez scores. Kyle Manzardo scores. (inning 4) — -38% Guardians
6Isaac Collins homers (3) on a line drive to right center field.3–5
4Michael Massey homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Isaac Collins scores.3–4
4Rhys Hoskins homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. José Ramírez scores. Kyle Manzardo scores.3–2
1Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
