Guardians at Royals
Last play · Austin Hedges challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Isaac Collins called out on strikes.
Win probability
Royals0%
CLE 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 2 – 1 KC
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Austin Hedges scores. Petey Halpin scores. (inning 5) — -31% Guardians
8David Fry grounds out, third baseman Maikel Garcia to shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. José Ramírez scores.3–1
5Chase DeLauter singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Austin Hedges scores. Petey Halpin scores.2–1
3Salvador Perez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder David Fry. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
