Guardians at Royals
Last play · Jac Caglianone flies out to right fielder Angel Martínez.
Win probability
Royals0%
CLE 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 4 – 1 KC
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+104 / -126
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Manzardo doubles (3) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez scores. (inning 1) — -21% Guardians
8Lane Thomas out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Steven Kwan. Isaac Collins scores.8–5
7Vinnie Pasquantino homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.8–4
7Bobby Witt Jr. homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.8–3
7Bo Naylor homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Travis Bazzana scores. Brayan Rocchio scores.8–2
6Nick Loftin out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Petey Halpin. Carter Jensen scores.5–2
6Chase DeLauter doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel.5–1
5Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Michael Massey scores.4–1
3Petey Halpin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Daniel Schneemann scores. Brayan Rocchio to 2nd.4–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
