Tigers at Royals
Last play · Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Nick Loftin scores.
Win probability
Royals100%
DET 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 1 – 1 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Kyle Isbel scores. (inning 8) — +32% Royals
9Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Nick Loftin scores.3–4
8Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Kyle Isbel scores.3–3
8Kyle Isbel singles on a ground ball to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Michael Massey scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd. Kyle Isbel advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by right fielder Wenceel Pérez.3–2
6Spencer Torkelson doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Isaac Collins. Wenceel Pérez scores.3–1
6Wenceel Pérez doubles (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Dillon Dingler scores.2–1
2Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Jac Caglianone scores.1–1
2Spencer Torkelson grounds into a double play, third baseman Maikel Garcia to second baseman Michael Massey to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Riley Greene scores. Wenceel Pérez out at 2nd. Spencer Torkelson out at 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
