Tigers at Royals
Last play · Zach McKinstry strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals100%
DET 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 0 – 5 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bobby Witt Jr. hits an inside-the-park home run (5) on a line drive down the right-field line. Maikel Garcia scores. (inning 1) — +17% Royals
8Riley Greene doubles (12) on a fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Kevin McGonigle scores.1–5
4Michael Massey homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Carter Jensen scores. Jac Caglianone scores.0–5
1Bobby Witt Jr. hits an inside-the-park home run (5) on a line drive down the right-field line. Maikel Garcia scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
