Red Sox at Royals
Last play · Isaac Collins grounds out, third baseman Nick Sogard to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Royals0%
BOS 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 0 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-111 / -108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Willson Contreras homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Mickey Gasper scores. (inning 6) — -29% Red Sox
7Jac Caglianone doubles (9) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Carter Jensen scores.3–1
7Jarren Duran out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Isaac Collins. Connor Wong scores.3–0
6Willson Contreras homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Mickey Gasper scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
