Tigers at Royals
Last play · Lane Thomas strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals0%
DET 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalDET 3 – 3 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Tigers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gage Workman homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Torkelson scores. (inning 6) — -29% Tigers
7Wenceel Pérez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Riley Greene scores. Wenceel Pérez to 2nd.6–3
6Gage Workman homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Spencer Torkelson scores.5–3
4Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Jac Caglianone scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd.3–3
3Carter Jensen out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.3–2
3Vinnie Pasquantino singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 3rd.3–1
2Matt Vierling doubles (9) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Zack Short scores. Matt Vierling to 3rd. Matt Vierling advances to 3rd, on a fielding error by center fielder Kyle Isbel.3–0
2Hao-Yu Lee triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Wenceel Pérez scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
