Red Sox at Royals
Last play · Vinnie Pasquantino strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Royals0%
BOS 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 1 KC
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-136 / +113
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Caleb Durbin singles on a line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Carlos Narváez scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd. Fielding error by center fielder Lane Thomas. (inning 2) — -15% Red Sox
9Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder Starling Marte. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.7–1
9Jarren Duran homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Marcelo Mayer scores.6–1
8Willson Contreras grounds out, third baseman Maikel Garcia to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.3–1
2Caleb Durbin singles on a line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Carlos Narváez scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd. Fielding error by center fielder Lane Thomas.2–1
1Lane Thomas doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Wilyer Abreu. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. Salvador Perez to 3rd.1–1
1Willson Contreras singles on a line drive to left fielder Starling Marte. Jarren Duran scores. Wilyer Abreu to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
