Red Sox at Royals
Last play · Maikel Garcia grounds out, third baseman Caleb Durbin to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Royals0%
BOS 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 3 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -114
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Carlos Narváez scores. (inning 7) — -41% Red Sox
7Jarren Duran homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Carlos Narváez scores.4–3
5Elias Díaz homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Starling Marte scores.2–3
2Carlos Narváez grounds into a double play, third baseman Maikel Garcia to first baseman Salvador Perez. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Nick Sogard out at 3rd. Marcelo Mayer to 2nd. Carlos Narváez out at 1st.2–1
2Nick Sogard singles on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Willson Contreras scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.1–1
1Salvador Perez homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
