Mariners at Royals
Last play · Jac Caglianone lines out to third baseman Colt Emerson.
Win probability
Royals0%
SEA 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 0 KC
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-121 / +100
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Mitch Garver homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Cole Young scores. (inning 7) — -31% Mariners
7Mitch Garver homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Cole Young scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
