Mariners at Royals
Last play · Julio Rodríguez flies out sharply to center fielder Kyle Isbel.
Win probability
Royals100%
SEA 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 4 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-131 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carter Jensen grounds out to first baseman Josh Naylor. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 1) — +9% Royals
6Mariners challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Isaac Collins singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez. Carter Jensen scores.0–5
3Carter Jensen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–4
1Jac Caglianone singles on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.0–3
1Carter Jensen grounds out to first baseman Josh Naylor. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.0–2
1Vinnie Pasquantino reaches on a fielder's choice. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. to 2nd. Throwing error by second baseman Cole Young.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
