Mariners at Royals
SEA6–
KC8Last play · Mariners challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was upheld: Luke Raley grounds out softly, catcher Salvador Perez to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino.
Win probability
Royals100%
SEA 0%KC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 4 KC
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-127 / +106
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Royals favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Michael Massey scores. Kyle Isbel scores. Vinnie Pasquantino to 2nd. (inning 5) — +30% Royals
9Randy Arozarena doubles (14) on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Josh Naylor scores.6–8
9Josh Naylor singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Kyle Isbel. Julio Rodríguez scores.5–8
9Julio Rodríguez singles on a fly ball to right fielder Tyler Tolbert. Colt Emerson scores.4–8
8Maikel Garcia singles on a ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena, deflected by third baseman Colt Emerson. Tyler Tolbert scores. Isaac Collins scores.3–8
7Salvador Perez singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.3–6
7J.P. Crawford singles on a ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Mitch Garver scores. Colt Emerson to 2nd.3–5
7Colt Emerson singles on a fly ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Dominic Canzone scores. Mitch Garver to 2nd.2–5
6Kyle Isbel out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Luke Raley. Isaac Collins scores.1–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.